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Will Rodrygo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open market

Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 11 minutes ago58.3% Lamine YamalUpdated 11 minutes ago22.1% Kylian MbappéUpdated 11 minutes ago7.7% Lionel MessiUpdated 11 minutes ago5.3% RodriUpdated 11 minutes ago4.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 11 minutes ago1.9% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 11 minutes ago0.9% Fabian RuizUpdated 11 minutes ago0.5% Michael OliseUpdated 11 minutes ago0.4% Erling HaalandUpdated 11 minutes ago0.2% Pau CubarsiUpdated 11 minutes ago0.1% RodrygoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Luis DiazUpdated 11 minutes ago0.1% Achraf HakimiUpdated 11 minutes ago0.1% Desire DoueUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Federico ValverdeUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Enzo FernandezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Bukayo SakaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 11 minutes ago0.1% Bruno FernandesUpdated 11 minutes ago0.1% RaphinhaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% VitinhaUpdated 11 minutes ago0.1% Declan RiceUpdated 11 minutes ago0.1% Cole PalmerUpdated 1 week ago0.1% PedriUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 11 minutes ago0.1% Mohamed SalahUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Jude BellinghamUpdated 11 minutes ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Aug 23, 04:16 to Sep 8, 20:02 0%25%50%75%100% Aug 23, 04:16Sep 8, 20:02

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 79 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Sep 8, 20:02 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 19:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 18:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 17:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 15:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 12:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 08:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 07:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 04:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 03:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 02:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 01:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 00:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 23:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 22:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 21:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 20:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 19:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 17:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 16:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 15:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 14:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 13:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 11:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 04:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 03:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 02:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 00:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 22:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 21:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 20:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 19:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 18:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 17:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 15:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 14:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 12:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 11:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 09:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 08:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 07:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 06:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 05:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 04:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 03:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 02:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 00:20 UTC0.1%
Sep 5, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 4, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 3, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 2, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 1, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 31, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 30, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 29, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 28, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 27, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 26, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 25, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 24, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 23, 04:16 UTC0.1%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Related reporting

Rodrygo Opens Up on Social Media Pressure: 'Players Are Human Beings, but Focus Has to Be on the Pitch'19 Jun 2026

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