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Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 12 minutes ago55.1% Lamine YamalUpdated 12 minutes ago22.0% Kylian MbappéUpdated 12 minutes ago11.6% RodriUpdated 12 minutes ago4.5% Lionel MessiUpdated 12 minutes ago3.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 12 minutes ago2.3% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 12 minutes ago0.8% Fabian RuizUpdated 12 minutes ago0.6% Michael OliseUpdated 12 minutes ago0.3% Erling HaalandUpdated 12 minutes ago0.3% Pau CubarsiUpdated 12 minutes ago0.2% Jude BellinghamUpdated 12 minutes ago0.2% RodrygoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Bukayo SakaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Enzo FernandezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Luis DiazUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Achraf HakimiUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Desire DoueUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Federico ValverdeUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Bruno FernandesUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% RaphinhaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% VitinhaUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Declan RiceUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Cole PalmerUpdated 1 week ago0.1% PedriUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Mohamed SalahUpdated 1 week ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Aug 18, 04:16 to Sep 16, 18:31 0%25%50%75%100% Aug 18, 04:16Sep 16, 18:31

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 263 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Sep 16, 18:31 UTC22.0%
Sep 16, 17:31 UTC22.0%
Sep 16, 16:31 UTC22.1%
Sep 16, 15:30 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 14:30 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 13:30 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 12:30 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 11:16 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 10:16 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 09:16 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 08:16 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 07:15 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 06:01 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 05:01 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 04:00 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 02:46 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 01:46 UTC22.2%
Sep 16, 00:45 UTC22.2%
Sep 15, 23:31 UTC22.1%
Sep 15, 22:31 UTC22.1%
Sep 15, 21:31 UTC22.1%
Sep 15, 20:30 UTC22.6%
Sep 15, 19:16 UTC22.6%
Sep 15, 18:16 UTC22.6%
Sep 15, 17:16 UTC22.6%
Sep 15, 16:15 UTC22.2%
Sep 15, 15:15 UTC22.2%
Sep 15, 14:15 UTC22.3%
Sep 15, 13:01 UTC23.1%
Sep 15, 12:01 UTC23.0%
Sep 15, 11:00 UTC23.0%
Sep 15, 10:00 UTC22.9%
Sep 15, 08:46 UTC22.8%
Sep 15, 07:46 UTC21.9%
Sep 15, 06:45 UTC24.2%
Sep 15, 05:45 UTC24.2%
Sep 15, 04:45 UTC24.2%
Sep 15, 03:45 UTC24.2%
Sep 15, 02:45 UTC23.1%
Sep 15, 01:31 UTC24.0%
Sep 15, 00:31 UTC22.6%
Sep 14, 23:31 UTC22.8%
Sep 14, 22:31 UTC19.6%
Sep 14, 21:31 UTC19.3%
Sep 14, 20:30 UTC19.3%
Sep 14, 19:16 UTC19.5%
Sep 14, 18:16 UTC19.5%
Sep 14, 17:16 UTC19.4%
Sep 14, 16:16 UTC19.3%
Sep 14, 15:15 UTC19.6%
Sep 14, 14:15 UTC18.0%
Sep 14, 13:01 UTC17.7%
Sep 14, 12:00 UTC17.7%
Sep 14, 11:00 UTC17.5%
Sep 14, 10:00 UTC17.6%
Sep 14, 08:46 UTC17.6%
Sep 14, 07:46 UTC17.3%
Sep 14, 06:46 UTC17.3%
Sep 14, 05:45 UTC17.1%
Sep 14, 04:45 UTC17.0%
Sep 14, 03:45 UTC16.9%
Sep 14, 02:31 UTC16.6%
Sep 14, 01:31 UTC16.6%
Sep 14, 00:31 UTC16.6%
Sep 13, 23:30 UTC16.6%
Sep 13, 22:30 UTC16.6%
Sep 13, 21:16 UTC16.6%
Sep 13, 20:16 UTC16.6%
Sep 13, 19:15 UTC16.6%
Sep 13, 18:01 UTC16.6%
Sep 13, 17:01 UTC16.6%
Sep 13, 16:00 UTC16.6%
Sep 13, 14:46 UTC16.6%
Sep 13, 13:46 UTC16.5%
Sep 13, 12:45 UTC16.5%
Sep 13, 11:45 UTC16.5%
Sep 13, 10:31 UTC16.5%
Sep 13, 09:31 UTC16.5%
Sep 13, 08:30 UTC16.8%
Sep 13, 07:30 UTC16.5%
Sep 13, 06:30 UTC16.5%
Sep 13, 05:30 UTC16.5%
Sep 13, 04:30 UTC16.5%
Sep 13, 03:30 UTC16.4%
Sep 13, 02:16 UTC16.7%
Sep 13, 01:16 UTC16.7%
Sep 13, 00:16 UTC16.5%
Sep 12, 23:15 UTC16.7%
Sep 12, 22:15 UTC16.7%
Sep 12, 21:09 UTC16.7%
Sep 12, 20:09 UTC16.7%
Sep 12, 18:18 UTC16.8%
Sep 12, 17:18 UTC16.6%
Sep 12, 16:17 UTC16.6%
Sep 12, 15:14 UTC16.6%
Sep 12, 13:30 UTC16.6%
Sep 12, 12:16 UTC16.6%
Sep 12, 11:15 UTC16.5%
Sep 12, 10:15 UTC16.5%
Sep 12, 09:15 UTC16.5%
Sep 12, 08:01 UTC16.5%
Sep 12, 07:01 UTC16.5%
Sep 12, 06:00 UTC16.5%
Sep 12, 05:00 UTC16.5%
Sep 12, 03:46 UTC16.5%
Sep 12, 02:45 UTC16.4%
Sep 12, 01:45 UTC16.4%
Sep 12, 00:31 UTC16.4%
Sep 11, 23:30 UTC16.4%
Sep 11, 22:16 UTC16.4%
Sep 11, 21:16 UTC16.4%
Sep 11, 20:16 UTC16.4%
Sep 11, 19:16 UTC16.4%
Sep 11, 18:16 UTC16.4%
Sep 11, 17:15 UTC16.4%
Sep 11, 16:01 UTC16.4%
Sep 11, 15:01 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 14:00 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 12:46 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 11:45 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 10:31 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 09:31 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 08:30 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 07:16 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 06:16 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 05:16 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 04:15 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 03:15 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 02:01 UTC16.3%
Sep 11, 01:01 UTC16.2%
Sep 11, 00:00 UTC16.2%
Sep 10, 22:46 UTC16.2%
Sep 10, 21:46 UTC16.0%
Sep 10, 20:46 UTC16.0%
Sep 10, 19:45 UTC16.0%
Sep 10, 18:31 UTC16.0%
Sep 10, 17:15 UTC16.0%
Sep 10, 16:02 UTC16.0%
Sep 10, 15:01 UTC16.0%
Sep 10, 14:00 UTC16.2%
Sep 10, 13:00 UTC16.2%
Sep 10, 11:46 UTC16.2%
Sep 10, 10:46 UTC16.2%
Sep 10, 09:45 UTC15.9%
Sep 10, 08:45 UTC15.9%
Sep 10, 07:45 UTC15.9%
Sep 10, 06:31 UTC16.4%
Sep 10, 05:31 UTC16.4%
Sep 10, 04:31 UTC16.1%
Sep 10, 03:31 UTC16.3%
Sep 10, 02:31 UTC16.3%
Sep 10, 01:30 UTC16.2%
Sep 10, 00:30 UTC15.5%
Sep 9, 23:30 UTC15.7%
Sep 9, 22:16 UTC16.8%
Sep 9, 21:16 UTC16.7%
Sep 9, 20:15 UTC16.0%
Sep 9, 19:15 UTC16.0%
Sep 9, 18:01 UTC15.6%
Sep 9, 17:01 UTC15.3%
Sep 9, 16:00 UTC16.1%
Sep 9, 14:46 UTC16.9%
Sep 9, 13:46 UTC16.4%
Sep 9, 12:46 UTC16.6%
Sep 9, 11:46 UTC16.7%
Sep 9, 10:45 UTC14.6%
Sep 9, 09:45 UTC14.6%
Sep 9, 08:45 UTC14.6%
Sep 9, 07:45 UTC14.6%
Sep 9, 06:45 UTC14.6%
Sep 9, 05:45 UTC14.7%
Sep 9, 04:31 UTC14.5%
Sep 9, 03:31 UTC14.5%
Sep 9, 02:31 UTC14.5%
Sep 9, 01:30 UTC14.5%
Sep 9, 00:30 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 23:30 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 22:30 UTC14.6%
Sep 8, 21:30 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 20:19 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 19:16 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 18:15 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 17:15 UTC14.6%
Sep 8, 16:01 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 15:01 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 14:00 UTC14.2%
Sep 8, 13:00 UTC14.2%
Sep 8, 12:00 UTC14.2%
Sep 8, 11:00 UTC14.2%
Sep 8, 09:46 UTC14.7%
Sep 8, 08:45 UTC14.7%
Sep 8, 07:45 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 06:45 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 05:45 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 04:31 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 03:30 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 02:30 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 01:30 UTC14.5%
Sep 8, 00:16 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 23:16 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 22:16 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 21:15 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 20:01 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 19:01 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 18:00 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 16:46 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 15:46 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 14:45 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 13:31 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 12:31 UTC14.8%
Sep 7, 11:31 UTC14.1%
Sep 7, 10:30 UTC14.1%
Sep 7, 09:30 UTC14.1%
Sep 7, 08:16 UTC14.1%
Sep 7, 07:16 UTC14.4%
Sep 7, 06:16 UTC14.5%
Sep 7, 05:15 UTC14.7%
Sep 7, 04:01 UTC14.7%
Sep 7, 03:01 UTC14.7%
Sep 7, 02:00 UTC14.7%
Sep 7, 00:46 UTC14.7%
Sep 6, 23:46 UTC14.7%
Sep 6, 22:45 UTC14.7%
Sep 6, 21:45 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 20:31 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 19:30 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 18:30 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 17:30 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 16:16 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 15:15 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 14:01 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 13:01 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 12:00 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 10:46 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 09:45 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 08:45 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 07:45 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 06:31 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 05:31 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 04:31 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 03:30 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 02:30 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 01:30 UTC14.0%
Sep 6, 00:20 UTC14.0%
Sep 5, 04:16 UTC14.1%
Sep 4, 04:16 UTC14.9%
Sep 3, 04:16 UTC15.4%
Sep 2, 04:16 UTC16.4%
Sep 1, 04:16 UTC16.4%
Aug 31, 04:16 UTC15.0%
Aug 30, 04:16 UTC15.0%
Aug 29, 04:16 UTC15.4%
Aug 28, 04:16 UTC15.7%
Aug 27, 04:16 UTC16.4%
Aug 26, 04:16 UTC16.4%
Aug 25, 04:16 UTC15.1%
Aug 24, 04:16 UTC16.4%
Aug 23, 04:16 UTC18.9%
Aug 22, 04:16 UTC17.5%
Aug 21, 04:16 UTC15.8%
Aug 20, 04:16 UTC15.9%
Aug 19, 04:16 UTC16.7%
Aug 18, 04:16 UTC15.0%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Related reporting

God's will? Destiny? Lionel Messi, Lamine Yamal and the World Cup final photo that defies belief17 Jul 2026The remarkable photos of Messi and Lamine Yamal: 'The beginning of two legends'17 Jul 2026Lamine Yamal Misses Spain Training Ahead of World Cup Final vs Argentina17 Jul 2026A True Miracle of Destiny: Messi and Yamal's Incredible First Meeting16 Jul 2026'Influential' Lamine Yamal Has 'More to Give' for Spain, Say Pundits10 Jul 2026

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