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Will Raphinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 29 seconds ago58.3% Lamine YamalUpdated 29 seconds ago22.1% Kylian MbappéUpdated 29 seconds ago7.7% Lionel MessiUpdated 29 seconds ago5.3% RodriUpdated 29 seconds ago4.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 29 seconds ago1.9% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 29 seconds ago0.9% Fabian RuizUpdated 29 seconds ago0.5% Michael OliseUpdated 29 seconds ago0.4% Erling HaalandUpdated 29 seconds ago0.2% Pau CubarsiUpdated 29 seconds ago0.1% RodrygoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Luis DiazUpdated 29 seconds ago0.1% Achraf HakimiUpdated 29 seconds ago0.1% Desire DoueUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Federico ValverdeUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Enzo FernandezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Bukayo SakaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 29 seconds ago0.1% Bruno FernandesUpdated 29 seconds ago0.1% RaphinhaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% VitinhaUpdated 29 seconds ago0.1% Declan RiceUpdated 29 seconds ago0.1% Cole PalmerUpdated 1 week ago0.1% PedriUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 29 seconds ago0.1% Mohamed SalahUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Jude BellinghamUpdated 29 seconds ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Aug 23, 04:16 to Sep 8, 19:16 0%25%50%75%100% Aug 23, 04:16Sep 8, 19:16

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 78 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Sep 8, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 12:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 08:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 07:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 03:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 02:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 00:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 23:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 22:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 21:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 20:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 19:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 18:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 16:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 15:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 14:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 13:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 11:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 04:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 03:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 02:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 00:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 22:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 21:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 20:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 19:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 18:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 17:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 15:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 14:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 12:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 03:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 02:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 00:20 UTC0.1%
Sep 5, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 4, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 3, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 2, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 1, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 31, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 30, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 29, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 28, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 27, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 26, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 25, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 24, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 23, 04:16 UTC0.1%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Related reporting

Raphinha Issues Apology Following Heated Exchange with Atlético Supporters After UCL Exit16 Apr 2026Raphinha's Post-Match Outburst Could Cost Him Champions League Games15 Apr 2026Barcelona hit seven past Newcastle as Lewandowski and Raphinha lead ruthless Champions League rout12 Apr 2026

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