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Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open market

Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 13 minutes ago58.3% Lamine YamalUpdated 13 minutes ago22.1% Kylian MbappéUpdated 13 minutes ago7.7% Lionel MessiUpdated 13 minutes ago5.3% RodriUpdated 13 minutes ago4.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 13 minutes ago1.9% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 13 minutes ago0.9% Fabian RuizUpdated 13 minutes ago0.5% Michael OliseUpdated 13 minutes ago0.4% Erling HaalandUpdated 13 minutes ago0.2% Pau CubarsiUpdated 13 minutes ago0.1% RodrygoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Luis DiazUpdated 13 minutes ago0.1% Achraf HakimiUpdated 13 minutes ago0.1% Desire DoueUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Federico ValverdeUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Enzo FernandezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Bukayo SakaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 13 minutes ago0.1% Bruno FernandesUpdated 13 minutes ago0.1% RaphinhaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% VitinhaUpdated 13 minutes ago0.1% Declan RiceUpdated 13 minutes ago0.1% Cole PalmerUpdated 1 week ago0.1% PedriUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 13 minutes ago0.1% Mohamed SalahUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Jude BellinghamUpdated 13 minutes ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Aug 23, 04:16 to Sep 21, 18:02 0%25%50%75%100% Aug 23, 04:16Sep 21, 18:02

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 369 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Sep 21, 18:02 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 12:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 11:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 10:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 09:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 08:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 07:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 06:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 05:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 03:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 02:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 01:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 00:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 23:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 21:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 20:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 19:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 18:41 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 17:40 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 16:33 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 15:25 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 14:23 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 10:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 05:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 03:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 02:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 01:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 00:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 22:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 21:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 20:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 19:32 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 18:24 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 17:20 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 16:18 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 15:14 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 13:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 12:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 11:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 04:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 03:02 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 02:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 01:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 22:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 21:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 20:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 19:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 18:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 17:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 16:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 15:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 14:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 13:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 12:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 11:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 10:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 09:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 08:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 06:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 05:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 04:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 03:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 02:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 01:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 00:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 23:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 22:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 21:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 20:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 19:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 17:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 15:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 13:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 11:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 10:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 08:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 04:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 03:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 02:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 01:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 22:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 21:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 20:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 19:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 18:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 17:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 16:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 15:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 14:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 13:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 12:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 11:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 10:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 09:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 07:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 06:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 05:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 04:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 02:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 01:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 00:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 23:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 22:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 21:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 20:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 18:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 17:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 16:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 15:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 14:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 12:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 11:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 10:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 08:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 07:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 06:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 05:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 04:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 03:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 02:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 01:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 00:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 23:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 22:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 21:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 20:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 18:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 17:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 15:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 14:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 12:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 11:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 10:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 08:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 07:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 06:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 05:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 04:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 03:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 02:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 01:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 00:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 23:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 22:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 21:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 20:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 19:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 12:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 11:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 10:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 09:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 08:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 07:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 06:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 05:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 04:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 03:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 02:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 01:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 00:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 23:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 22:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 21:09 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 20:09 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 18:18 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 17:18 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 16:17 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 15:14 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 13:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 12:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 11:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 10:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 09:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 08:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 07:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 06:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 05:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 03:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 02:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 01:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 00:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 23:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 22:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 21:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 20:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 18:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 17:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 16:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 15:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 14:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 12:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 11:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 10:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 09:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 08:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 05:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 04:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 03:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 02:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 01:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 00:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 22:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 21:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 20:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 19:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 18:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 17:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 16:02 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 15:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 14:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 13:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 03:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 02:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 00:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 23:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 22:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 21:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 20:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 19:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 12:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 10:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 06:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 05:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 03:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 02:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 00:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 23:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 22:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 21:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 20:19 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 18:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 17:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 16:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 15:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 14:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 13:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 12:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 11:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 09:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 06:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 05:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 03:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 02:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 00:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 23:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 22:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 21:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 20:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 19:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 18:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 16:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 15:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 14:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 13:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 11:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 04:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 03:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 02:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 00:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 22:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 21:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 20:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 19:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 18:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 17:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 15:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 14:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 12:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 03:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 02:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 00:20 UTC0.1%
Sep 5, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 4, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 3, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 2, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 1, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 31, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 30, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 29, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 28, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 27, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 26, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 25, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 24, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 23, 04:16 UTC0.1%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Related reporting

Vinicius Junior set to stay at Real Madrid as club moves toward new long-term deal28 Jul 2026Benfica Star Prestianni Lands Six-Game European Ban for Homophobic Slur Against Vinícius Júnior24 Apr 2026UEFA Bans Benfica's Prestianni for Six Matches Over Homophobic Slur at Vinicius Jr24 Apr 2026Mijatović outlines a path to heal the rift between Vinícius and the Bernabéu19 Jan 2026Mbappé Addresses Xabi Alonso Talk and Stands Up for Vinícius: 'I'm Not Going to Play Dumb'19 Jan 2026

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