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Will Michael Olise win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 56 seconds ago58.3% Lamine YamalUpdated 56 seconds ago22.1% Kylian MbappéUpdated 56 seconds ago7.7% Lionel MessiUpdated 56 seconds ago5.3% RodriUpdated 56 seconds ago4.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 56 seconds ago1.9% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 56 seconds ago0.9% Fabian RuizUpdated 56 seconds ago0.5% Michael OliseUpdated 56 seconds ago0.4% Erling HaalandUpdated 56 seconds ago0.2% Pau CubarsiUpdated 56 seconds ago0.1% RodrygoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Luis DiazUpdated 56 seconds ago0.1% Achraf HakimiUpdated 56 seconds ago0.1% Desire DoueUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Federico ValverdeUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Enzo FernandezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Bukayo SakaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 56 seconds ago0.1% Bruno FernandesUpdated 56 seconds ago0.1% RaphinhaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% VitinhaUpdated 56 seconds ago0.1% Declan RiceUpdated 56 seconds ago0.1% Cole PalmerUpdated 1 week ago0.1% PedriUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 56 seconds ago0.1% Mohamed SalahUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Jude BellinghamUpdated 56 seconds ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Aug 23, 04:16 to Sep 21, 18:01 0%25%50%75%100% Aug 23, 04:16Sep 21, 18:01

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 369 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Sep 21, 18:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 16:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 15:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 14:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 13:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 12:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 11:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 10:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 09:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 08:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 07:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 06:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 05:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 04:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 03:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 02:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 21, 00:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 23:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 22:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 21:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 20:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 19:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 18:41 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 17:40 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 16:33 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 15:25 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 14:23 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 13:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 11:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 10:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 09:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 08:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 07:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 06:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 05:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 04:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 03:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 02:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 01:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 20, 00:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 22:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 21:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 20:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 19:32 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 18:24 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 17:20 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 16:18 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 15:14 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 13:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 12:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 11:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 10:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 09:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 08:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 07:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 06:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 05:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 04:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 03:02 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 02:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 19, 01:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 23:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 22:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 21:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 20:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 19:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 18:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 17:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 16:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 15:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 14:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 13:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 12:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 11:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 10:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 09:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 08:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 06:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 05:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 04:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 03:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 02:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 01:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 18, 00:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 23:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 22:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 21:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 20:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 19:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 18:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 17:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 16:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 15:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 14:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 13:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 11:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 10:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 09:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 08:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 07:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 06:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 05:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 04:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 03:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 02:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 01:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 17, 00:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 16, 23:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 16, 22:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 16, 21:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 16, 20:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 16, 19:15 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 18:01 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 17:01 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 16:00 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 15:00 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 13:46 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 12:45 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 11:45 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 10:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 09:30 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 08:30 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 07:30 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 06:16 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 05:16 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 04:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 16, 03:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 16, 02:16 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 01:15 UTC0.3%
Sep 16, 00:01 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 23:01 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 22:00 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 20:46 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 19:46 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 18:45 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 17:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 16:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 15:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 14:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 13:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 12:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 11:30 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 10:30 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 09:16 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 08:15 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 07:15 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 06:01 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 05:01 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 04:00 UTC0.3%
Sep 15, 02:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 15, 01:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 15, 00:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 14, 23:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 14, 22:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 21:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 20:30 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 19:16 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 18:16 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 17:16 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 16:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 14, 15:15 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 14:15 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 13:01 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 12:00 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 11:00 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 10:00 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 08:46 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 07:46 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 06:46 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 05:45 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 04:45 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 03:45 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 02:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 01:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 14, 00:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 13, 23:30 UTC0.3%
Sep 13, 22:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 13, 21:16 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 20:16 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 19:15 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 18:01 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 17:01 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 16:00 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 14:46 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 13:46 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 12:45 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 11:45 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 10:31 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 09:31 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 08:30 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 07:30 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 06:30 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 05:30 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 04:30 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 03:30 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 02:16 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 01:16 UTC0.5%
Sep 13, 00:16 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 23:15 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 22:15 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 21:09 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 20:09 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 18:18 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 17:18 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 16:17 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 15:14 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 13:30 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 12:16 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 11:15 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 10:15 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 09:15 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 08:01 UTC0.5%
Sep 12, 07:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 12, 06:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 12, 05:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 12, 03:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 12, 02:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 12, 01:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 12, 00:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 23:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 22:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 21:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 20:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 19:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 18:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 17:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 16:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 15:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 14:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 12:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 11:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 10:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 09:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 08:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 07:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 06:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 05:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 04:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 03:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 02:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 01:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 11, 00:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 22:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 21:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 20:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 19:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 18:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 17:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 16:02 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 15:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 14:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 13:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 11:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 10:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 09:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 08:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 07:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 06:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 05:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 04:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 03:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 02:31 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 01:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 10, 00:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 23:30 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 22:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 21:16 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 20:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 19:15 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 18:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 17:01 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 16:00 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 14:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 13:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 12:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 11:46 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 10:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 09:45 UTC0.4%
Sep 9, 08:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 9, 07:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 9, 06:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 9, 05:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 9, 04:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 9, 03:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 9, 02:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 9, 01:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 9, 00:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 23:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 22:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 21:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 20:19 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 19:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 18:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 17:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 16:00 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 14:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 13:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 12:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 11:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 10:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 09:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 08:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 07:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 06:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 8, 05:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 8, 04:31 UTC0.3%
Sep 8, 03:30 UTC0.3%
Sep 8, 02:30 UTC0.3%
Sep 8, 01:30 UTC0.3%
Sep 8, 00:16 UTC0.3%
Sep 7, 23:16 UTC0.3%
Sep 7, 22:16 UTC0.3%
Sep 7, 21:15 UTC0.3%
Sep 7, 20:01 UTC0.3%
Sep 7, 19:01 UTC0.3%
Sep 7, 18:00 UTC0.3%
Sep 7, 16:46 UTC0.3%
Sep 7, 15:46 UTC0.3%
Sep 7, 14:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 13:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 12:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 11:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 10:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 09:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 08:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 07:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 06:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 05:15 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 04:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 03:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 02:00 UTC0.2%
Sep 7, 00:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 23:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 22:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 21:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 20:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 19:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 18:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 17:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 16:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 15:15 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 14:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 13:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 12:00 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 10:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 09:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 08:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 07:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 06:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 05:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 04:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 03:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 02:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 01:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 6, 00:20 UTC0.2%
Sep 5, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 4, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 3, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 2, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 1, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Aug 31, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Aug 30, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Aug 29, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Aug 28, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Aug 27, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Aug 26, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Aug 25, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Aug 24, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Aug 23, 04:16 UTC0.3%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Related reporting

Michael Olise: How a West London Estate Shaped France's World Cup Superstar10 Jul 2026‘Best player England has developed’: Olise’s rise from Hayes to the World Cup9 Jul 2026Olise booking stands as Deschamps fumes; Saibari out of Morocco quarter-final9 Jul 2026Real Madrid plot world-record move for Michael Olise to shatter Neymar's transfer milestone6 Jul 2026Transfer News LIVE: Real Madrid Eye Michael Olise as Tottenham Consider Blockbuster Rafael Leão Move6 Jul 2026

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