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Will Lautaro Martinez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open market

Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 12 minutes ago58.3% Lamine YamalUpdated 12 minutes ago22.1% Kylian MbappéUpdated 12 minutes ago7.7% Lionel MessiUpdated 12 minutes ago5.3% RodriUpdated 12 minutes ago4.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 12 minutes ago1.9% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 12 minutes ago0.9% Fabian RuizUpdated 12 minutes ago0.5% Michael OliseUpdated 12 minutes ago0.4% Erling HaalandUpdated 12 minutes ago0.2% Pau CubarsiUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% RodrygoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Luis DiazUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Achraf HakimiUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Desire DoueUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Federico ValverdeUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Enzo FernandezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Bukayo SakaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Bruno FernandesUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% RaphinhaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% VitinhaUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Declan RiceUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Cole PalmerUpdated 1 week ago0.1% PedriUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Mohamed SalahUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Jude BellinghamUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Aug 23, 04:16 to Sep 21, 17:46 0%25%50%75%100% Aug 23, 04:16Sep 21, 17:46

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 369 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Sep 21, 17:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 16:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 15:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 14:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 13:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 11:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 04:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 03:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 02:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 00:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 22:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 21:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 20:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 19:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 18:41 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 17:40 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 16:33 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 15:25 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 14:23 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 10:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 05:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 03:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 02:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 01:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 00:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 22:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 21:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 20:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 19:32 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 18:24 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 17:20 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 16:18 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 15:14 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 13:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 12:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 11:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 04:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 03:02 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 02:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 01:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 22:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 21:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 20:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 19:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 18:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 17:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 16:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 15:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 14:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 13:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 12:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 11:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 10:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 09:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 08:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 07:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 06:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 04:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 03:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 02:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 01:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 00:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 23:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 22:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 21:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 20:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 18:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 17:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 15:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 14:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 12:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 11:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 09:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 08:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 07:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 06:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 04:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 03:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 02:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 17, 00:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 23:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 22:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 21:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 20:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 19:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 15:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 12:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 11:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 10:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 08:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 07:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 05:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 03:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 02:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 01:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 16, 00:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 23:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 22:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 20:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 19:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 18:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 17:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 16:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 15:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 14:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 13:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 11:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 09:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 08:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 07:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 06:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 05:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 04:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 02:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 01:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 15, 00:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 23:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 22:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 21:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 20:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 18:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 17:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 15:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 14:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 13:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 12:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 11:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 10:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 09:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 08:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 06:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 05:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 04:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 03:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 02:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 01:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 14, 00:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 23:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 22:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 21:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 20:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 19:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 12:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 11:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 10:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 09:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 08:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 07:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 06:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 05:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 04:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 03:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 02:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 01:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 13, 00:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 23:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 22:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 21:09 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 20:09 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 18:18 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 17:18 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 16:17 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 15:14 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 13:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 12:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 11:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 10:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 09:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 08:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 07:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 06:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 05:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 03:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 02:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 01:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 12, 00:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 23:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 22:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 21:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 20:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 18:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 17:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 16:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 15:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 14:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 12:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 11:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 10:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 09:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 08:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 07:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 06:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 05:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 03:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 02:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 01:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 11, 00:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 23:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 22:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 20:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 19:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 18:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 17:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 16:02 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 15:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 14:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 13:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 03:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 02:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 10, 00:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 23:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 22:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 21:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 20:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 19:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 12:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 10:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 06:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 05:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 03:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 02:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 9, 00:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 23:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 22:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 21:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 20:19 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 12:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 08:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 07:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 04:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 03:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 02:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 01:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 00:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 23:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 22:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 21:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 20:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 19:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 17:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 16:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 15:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 14:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 13:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 11:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 04:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 03:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 02:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 00:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 22:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 21:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 20:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 19:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 18:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 17:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 15:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 14:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 12:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 03:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 02:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 00:20 UTC0.1%
Sep 5, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 4, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 3, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 2, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 1, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 31, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 30, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 29, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 28, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 27, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 26, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 25, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 24, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 23, 04:16 UTC0.1%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Related reporting

Mikel Merino: Arsenal Star Finds Common Ground with Lautaro Martinez Ahead of World Cup Final18 Jul 2026Italian Papers: Golden Lautaro Martinez and Roma’s Kessié Revenge Plan18 Jul 2026Lautaro Martinez Makes England Cry as Argentina Reach World Cup Final; Man Utd Eye Manu Koné16 Jul 2026Lautaro Breaks English Hearts as Argentina Reach World Cup Final; Pulisic Unrest at Milan16 Jul 2026Former Spurs star Lo Celso sparks fury as Argentina unfurl Falklands banner after World Cup semi-final win over England15 Jul 2026

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