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Will Julian Alvarez win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 12 minutes ago58.3% Lamine YamalUpdated 12 minutes ago22.1% Kylian MbappéUpdated 12 minutes ago7.7% Lionel MessiUpdated 12 minutes ago5.3% RodriUpdated 12 minutes ago4.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 12 minutes ago1.9% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 12 minutes ago0.9% Fabian RuizUpdated 12 minutes ago0.5% Michael OliseUpdated 12 minutes ago0.4% Erling HaalandUpdated 12 minutes ago0.2% Pau CubarsiUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% RodrygoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Luis DiazUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Achraf HakimiUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Desire DoueUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Federico ValverdeUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Enzo FernandezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Bukayo SakaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Bruno FernandesUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% RaphinhaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% VitinhaUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Declan RiceUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Cole PalmerUpdated 1 week ago0.1% PedriUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1% Mohamed SalahUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Jude BellinghamUpdated 12 minutes ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Aug 23, 04:16 to Sep 8, 19:16 0%25%50%75%100% Aug 23, 04:16Sep 8, 19:16

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 78 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Sep 8, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 12:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 08:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 07:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 03:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 02:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 8, 00:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 23:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 22:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 21:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 20:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 19:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 18:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 16:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 15:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 14:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 13:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 11:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 04:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 03:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 02:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 7, 00:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 22:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 21:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 20:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 19:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 18:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 17:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 15:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 14:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 12:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 03:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 02:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 6, 00:20 UTC0.1%
Sep 5, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 4, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 3, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 2, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 1, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 31, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 30, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 29, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 28, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 27, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 26, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 25, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 24, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Aug 23, 04:16 UTC0.1%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Related reporting

Arsenal’s ‘dream window’ talk runs into reality: Vinicius Jr staying at Real Madrid as Alvarez link remains unresolved28 Jul 2026Arsenal still interested in Alvarez as Tzolis move explored15 Jul 2026Barcelona Revive Julian Alvarez Bid as Man City and Spurs Chase Rafael Leao11 Jul 20262026 World Cup: Argentina vs Egypt Confirmed Lineups – Lautaro Martinez Dropped as Julian Alvarez Steps In7 Jul 2026Julian Alvarez Confirms Atletico Madrid Exit: 'I Want to Fulfil My Dream'23 Jun 2026

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