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Will Pau Cubarsi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open market

Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 28 seconds ago47.3% Lamine YamalUpdated 28 seconds ago43.9% Lionel MessiUpdated 28 seconds ago2.6% Kylian MbappéUpdated 28 seconds ago2.5% RodriUpdated 28 seconds ago1.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 28 seconds ago0.6% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 28 seconds ago0.4% Erling HaalandUpdated 28 seconds ago0.2% Michael OliseUpdated 28 seconds ago0.2% Fabian RuizUpdated 28 seconds ago0.2% Pau CubarsiUpdated 28 seconds ago0.1% RodrygoUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% Luis DiazUpdated 28 seconds ago0.1% Achraf HakimiUpdated 28 seconds ago0.1% Desire DoueUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% Federico ValverdeUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% Enzo FernandezUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% Bukayo SakaUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 28 seconds ago0.1% Bruno FernandesUpdated 28 seconds ago0.1% RaphinhaUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% VitinhaUpdated 28 seconds ago0.1% Declan RiceUpdated 28 seconds ago0.1% Cole PalmerUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% PedriUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 28 seconds ago0.1% Mohamed SalahUpdated 3 weeks ago0.1% Jude BellinghamUpdated 28 seconds ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Sep 18, 01:45 to Oct 5, 18:46 0%25%50%75%100% Sep 18, 01:45Oct 5, 18:46

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 400 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Oct 5, 18:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 17:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 16:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 15:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 14:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 13:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 11:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 10:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 09:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 08:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 07:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 06:02 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 05:01 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 04:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 03:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 01:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 5, 00:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 22:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 21:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 20:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 19:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 18:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 17:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 16:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 15:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 14:01 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 12:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 09:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 06:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 04:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 03:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 02:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 4, 00:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 23:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 22:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 21:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 20:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 19:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 18:02 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 12:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 11:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 10:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 08:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 07:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 05:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 03:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 02:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 01:01 UTC0.1%
Oct 3, 00:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 23:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 22:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 20:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 19:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 18:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 17:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 16:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 15:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 14:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 13:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 12:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 11:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 10:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 09:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 08:01 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 07:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 06:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 04:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 03:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 02:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 01:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 2, 00:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 23:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 22:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 21:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 20:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 19:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 18:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 16:01 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 15:01 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 14:01 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 13:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 12:00 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 10:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 09:46 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 05:31 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 04:30 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 03:16 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 02:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 01:15 UTC0.1%
Oct 1, 00:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 23:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 22:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 21:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 19:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 18:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 17:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 16:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 15:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 14:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 13:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 12:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 11:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 10:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 09:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 08:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 07:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 06:02 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 05:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 04:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 02:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 01:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 30, 00:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 22:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 21:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 20:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 19:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 18:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 17:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 15:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 14:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 13:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 12:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 11:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 10:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 09:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 08:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 07:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 05:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 04:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 03:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 02:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 29, 00:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 23:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 22:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 21:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 20:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 19:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 17:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 16:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 14:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 13:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 12:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 11:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 06:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 04:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 03:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 02:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 28, 01:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 22:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 21:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 20:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 19:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 18:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 17:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 15:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 14:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 13:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 12:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 11:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 10:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 09:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 08:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 07:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 06:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 05:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 03:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 02:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 01:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 27, 00:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 26, 23:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 26, 22:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 26, 21:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 26, 20:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 26, 19:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 26, 18:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 26, 17:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 26, 16:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 26, 15:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 14:15 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 13:15 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 12:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 11:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 10:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 09:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 08:00 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 06:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 05:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 04:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 03:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 02:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 01:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 26, 00:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 23:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 22:15 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 21:15 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 20:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 19:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 18:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 17:00 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 15:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 14:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 13:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 12:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 11:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 10:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 09:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 08:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 07:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 06:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 05:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 04:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 03:15 UTC0.2%
Sep 25, 02:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 25, 01:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 25, 00:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 24, 23:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 24, 22:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 24, 21:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 24, 20:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 24, 18:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 24, 17:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 24, 16:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 24, 15:31 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 14:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 13:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 12:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 11:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 10:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 09:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 08:15 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 07:15 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 06:02 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 05:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 04:00 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 03:00 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 01:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 24, 00:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 23, 23:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 23, 22:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 23, 21:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 23, 20:45 UTC0.2%
Sep 23, 19:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 18:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 17:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 16:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 15:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 14:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 13:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 12:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 11:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 10:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 09:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 07:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 06:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 05:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 04:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 03:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 02:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 01:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 23, 00:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 23:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 22:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 21:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 20:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 19:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 18:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 16:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 15:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 14:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 13:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 11:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 07:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 06:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 05:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 03:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 02:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 01:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 22, 00:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 23:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 22:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 21:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 20:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 19:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 17:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 16:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 15:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 14:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 13:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 12:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 11:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 04:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 03:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 02:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 21, 00:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 22:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 21:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 20:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 19:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 18:41 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 17:40 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 16:33 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 15:25 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 14:23 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 13:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 11:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 10:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 09:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 08:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 07:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 06:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 05:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 04:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 03:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 02:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 01:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 20, 00:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 22:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 21:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 20:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 19:32 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 18:24 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 17:20 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 16:18 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 15:14 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 13:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 12:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 11:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 10:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 09:30 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 08:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 07:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 06:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 05:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 04:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 03:02 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 02:01 UTC0.1%
Sep 19, 01:00 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 23:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 22:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 21:46 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 20:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 19:45 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 18:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 17:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 16:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 15:31 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 14:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 18, 13:30 UTC0.2%
Sep 18, 12:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 18, 11:16 UTC0.2%
Sep 18, 10:16 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 09:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 08:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 07:15 UTC0.1%
Sep 18, 06:01 UTC0.2%
Sep 18, 04:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 18, 03:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 18, 02:46 UTC0.2%
Sep 18, 01:45 UTC0.2%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

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