Will Raphinha finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open market

Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 10 minutes ago97.7% Lamine YamalUpdated 10 minutes ago95.4% Kylian MbappéUpdated 10 minutes ago84.0% Lionel MessiUpdated 10 minutes ago72.0% RodriUpdated 10 minutes ago65.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 10 minutes ago62.0% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 10 minutes ago35.5% Michael OliseUpdated 10 minutes ago35.0% Declan RiceUpdated 10 minutes ago12.5% Pau CubarsiUpdated 10 minutes ago11.9% Jude BellinghamUpdated 10 minutes ago6.6% Erling HaalandUpdated 10 minutes ago6.5% VitinhaUpdated 10 minutes ago4.3% Fabian RuizUpdated 10 minutes ago3.2% Luis DiazUpdated 10 minutes ago3.0% Achraf HakimiUpdated 10 minutes ago2.9% Bruno FernandesUpdated 10 minutes ago1.6% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 10 minutes ago1.3% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 10 minutes ago1.3% Bukayo SakaUpdated 1 week ago0.5% RaphinhaUpdated 1 week ago0.5% PedriUpdated 1 week ago0.4% Cole PalmerUpdated 1 week ago0.4% Enzo FernandezUpdated 1 week ago0.3% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 1 week ago0.3% Federico ValverdeUpdated 1 week ago0.2% RodrygoUpdated 1 week ago0.2% Mohamed SalahUpdated 1 week ago0.2% Desire DoueUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 1 week ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 29 snapshots

Recorded at	Probability
Sep 9, 12:00 UTC	0.5%
Sep 9, 11:00 UTC	0.5%
Sep 9, 09:46 UTC	0.7%
Sep 9, 08:46 UTC	0.7%
Sep 9, 07:46 UTC	0.7%
Sep 9, 06:45 UTC	0.7%
Sep 9, 05:31 UTC	0.7%
Sep 9, 04:30 UTC	0.7%
Sep 9, 03:30 UTC	0.7%
Sep 9, 02:30 UTC	0.7%
Sep 9, 01:16 UTC	0.7%
Sep 9, 00:15 UTC	2.9%
Sep 8, 23:15 UTC	2.6%
Sep 8, 22:15 UTC	2.7%
Sep 8, 21:04 UTC	2.6%
Sep 8, 20:02 UTC	2.6%
Sep 8, 18:45 UTC	2.6%
Sep 8, 17:31 UTC	2.6%
Sep 8, 16:31 UTC	2.6%
Sep 8, 15:31 UTC	3.1%
Sep 8, 14:30 UTC	5.1%
Sep 8, 13:01 UTC	5.1%
Sep 8, 12:01 UTC	5.1%
Sep 8, 11:00 UTC	5.1%
Sep 8, 10:00 UTC	5.1%
Sep 8, 05:01 UTC	5.1%
Sep 8, 04:00 UTC	5.1%
Sep 8, 00:46 UTC	4.9%
Sep 6, 00:21 UTC	5.4%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Raphinha officially finishes in the top 5 (positions 1 through 5) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.