Skip to content

Will Vitinha finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

Open market

Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 10 minutes ago97.7% Lamine YamalUpdated 10 minutes ago95.4% Kylian MbappéUpdated 10 minutes ago84.0% Lionel MessiUpdated 10 minutes ago72.0% RodriUpdated 10 minutes ago65.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 10 minutes ago62.0% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 10 minutes ago35.5% Michael OliseUpdated 10 minutes ago35.0% Declan RiceUpdated 10 minutes ago12.5% Pau CubarsiUpdated 10 minutes ago11.9% Jude BellinghamUpdated 10 minutes ago6.6% Erling HaalandUpdated 10 minutes ago6.5% VitinhaUpdated 10 minutes ago4.3% Fabian RuizUpdated 10 minutes ago3.2% Luis DiazUpdated 10 minutes ago3.0% Achraf HakimiUpdated 10 minutes ago2.9% Bruno FernandesUpdated 10 minutes ago1.6% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 10 minutes ago1.3% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 10 minutes ago1.3% Bukayo SakaUpdated 1 week ago0.5% RaphinhaUpdated 1 week ago0.5% PedriUpdated 1 week ago0.4% Cole PalmerUpdated 1 week ago0.4% Enzo FernandezUpdated 1 week ago0.3% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 1 week ago0.3% Federico ValverdeUpdated 1 week ago0.2% RodrygoUpdated 1 week ago0.2% Mohamed SalahUpdated 1 week ago0.2% Desire DoueUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 1 week ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability
Recorded market probability from Sep 6, 00:21 to Sep 21, 19:15 0%25%50%75%100% Sep 6, 00:21Sep 21, 19:15

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 98 snapshots
Recorded atProbability
Sep 21, 19:15 UTC4.3%
Sep 21, 18:01 UTC4.3%
Sep 21, 16:46 UTC4.3%
Sep 21, 15:46 UTC4.3%
Sep 21, 14:45 UTC4.3%
Sep 21, 13:45 UTC4.3%
Sep 21, 12:31 UTC4.3%
Sep 21, 11:31 UTC4.3%
Sep 21, 10:30 UTC4.3%
Sep 21, 09:16 UTC4.4%
Sep 21, 08:15 UTC4.4%
Sep 21, 07:15 UTC4.4%
Sep 21, 06:15 UTC4.4%
Sep 21, 05:15 UTC4.4%
Sep 21, 04:15 UTC4.4%
Sep 21, 03:01 UTC4.4%
Sep 21, 02:01 UTC4.4%
Sep 21, 01:00 UTC4.4%
Sep 21, 00:00 UTC4.4%
Sep 20, 06:15 UTC4.4%
Sep 20, 05:15 UTC4.4%
Sep 20, 04:01 UTC4.4%
Sep 20, 03:00 UTC4.4%
Sep 19, 23:00 UTC4.4%
Sep 19, 21:07 UTC4.4%
Sep 19, 07:30 UTC4.4%
Sep 19, 06:30 UTC4.4%
Sep 19, 05:16 UTC4.4%
Sep 19, 04:16 UTC4.4%
Sep 19, 03:16 UTC4.4%
Sep 19, 02:15 UTC4.4%
Sep 19, 01:01 UTC4.4%
Sep 19, 00:01 UTC4.4%
Sep 18, 23:00 UTC4.4%
Sep 18, 22:00 UTC4.4%
Sep 18, 03:16 UTC4.4%
Sep 17, 03:01 UTC4.4%
Sep 16, 02:30 UTC4.2%
Sep 15, 23:00 UTC4.2%
Sep 15, 05:45 UTC4.3%
Sep 15, 04:45 UTC4.3%
Sep 15, 03:45 UTC4.3%
Sep 15, 02:31 UTC4.2%
Sep 14, 05:00 UTC4.2%
Sep 14, 02:16 UTC4.2%
Sep 13, 02:15 UTC3.2%
Sep 12, 01:46 UTC3.2%
Sep 11, 01:31 UTC3.2%
Sep 10, 10:00 UTC3.2%
Sep 10, 08:46 UTC3.2%
Sep 10, 07:46 UTC3.2%
Sep 10, 06:46 UTC3.2%
Sep 10, 05:45 UTC3.2%
Sep 10, 04:31 UTC3.2%
Sep 10, 03:31 UTC3.2%
Sep 10, 02:31 UTC3.2%
Sep 10, 01:30 UTC3.2%
Sep 10, 00:30 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 23:30 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 22:30 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 21:30 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 20:16 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 19:16 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 18:16 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 17:15 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 16:15 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 15:15 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 14:01 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 13:01 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 12:00 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 11:00 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 09:46 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 08:46 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 07:46 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 06:45 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 05:31 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 04:30 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 03:30 UTC3.1%
Sep 9, 02:30 UTC3.1%
Sep 9, 01:16 UTC3.2%
Sep 9, 00:15 UTC3.2%
Sep 8, 23:15 UTC3.1%
Sep 8, 22:15 UTC3.2%
Sep 8, 21:04 UTC3.2%
Sep 8, 20:02 UTC3.2%
Sep 8, 18:45 UTC3.2%
Sep 8, 17:31 UTC3.2%
Sep 8, 16:31 UTC3.2%
Sep 8, 15:31 UTC3.2%
Sep 8, 14:30 UTC3.2%
Sep 8, 13:01 UTC3.3%
Sep 8, 12:01 UTC3.3%
Sep 8, 11:00 UTC3.6%
Sep 8, 10:00 UTC3.6%
Sep 8, 05:01 UTC3.8%
Sep 8, 04:00 UTC4.3%
Sep 8, 00:46 UTC4.1%
Sep 6, 00:21 UTC3.3%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vitinha officially finishes in the top 5 (positions 1 through 5) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related reporting

Will Portugal win their first World Cup? Anything is possible with Vitinha and Bruno Fernandes16 Jun 2026Why Cristiano Ronaldo's Final World Cup Could Be His Best Shot at Glory16 Jun 2026

More football markets

All markets