Will Federico Valverde finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

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Same event, all outcomes

Harry KaneUpdated 9 minutes ago91.3% Lamine YamalUpdated 9 minutes ago83.0% Kylian MbappéUpdated 9 minutes ago51.0% Lionel MessiUpdated 9 minutes ago41.5% RodriUpdated 9 minutes ago29.5% Khvicha KvaratskheliaUpdated 9 minutes ago15.9% Ousmane DembéléUpdated 9 minutes ago13.5% Michael OliseUpdated 9 minutes ago9.8% Pau CubarsiUpdated 9 minutes ago4.4% Fabian RuizUpdated 9 minutes ago3.3% Jude BellinghamUpdated 9 minutes ago3.3% Achraf HakimiUpdated 9 minutes ago2.5% Luis DiazUpdated 9 minutes ago2.4% Erling HaalandUpdated 9 minutes ago2.1% VitinhaUpdated 9 minutes ago2.0% Declan RiceUpdated 9 minutes ago1.4% Vinícius JúniorUpdated 9 minutes ago1.3% Lautaro MartinezUpdated 9 minutes ago0.7% Bruno FernandesUpdated 9 minutes ago0.7% RodrygoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cristiano RonaldoUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Dominik SzoboszlaiUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Enzo FernandezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Bukayo SakaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% RaphinhaUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Desire DoueUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Julian AlvarezUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Federico ValverdeUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Cole PalmerUpdated 1 week ago0.1% PedriUpdated 1 week ago0.1% Mohamed SalahUpdated 1 week ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 32 snapshots

Recorded at	Probability
Sep 9, 11:46 UTC	0.1%
Sep 9, 10:46 UTC	0.1%
Sep 9, 09:45 UTC	0.5%
Sep 9, 08:45 UTC	0.5%
Sep 9, 07:31 UTC	1.3%
Sep 9, 06:31 UTC	1.3%
Sep 9, 05:31 UTC	1.3%
Sep 9, 04:30 UTC	1.3%
Sep 9, 03:30 UTC	1.3%
Sep 9, 02:30 UTC	1.3%
Sep 9, 01:16 UTC	1.3%
Sep 9, 00:15 UTC	1.3%
Sep 8, 23:15 UTC	1.1%
Sep 8, 22:15 UTC	1.1%
Sep 8, 21:04 UTC	1.1%
Sep 8, 20:02 UTC	1.1%
Sep 8, 19:00 UTC	1.1%
Sep 8, 17:31 UTC	1.1%
Sep 8, 16:31 UTC	1.1%
Sep 8, 15:31 UTC	1.1%
Sep 8, 14:30 UTC	1.5%
Sep 8, 11:15 UTC	1.5%
Sep 8, 10:01 UTC	1.5%
Sep 8, 09:01 UTC	1.5%
Sep 8, 08:00 UTC	1.5%
Sep 8, 06:46 UTC	1.5%
Sep 8, 05:46 UTC	1.5%
Sep 8, 04:45 UTC	1.5%
Sep 8, 03:45 UTC	1.5%
Sep 8, 00:46 UTC	1.5%
Sep 7, 00:31 UTC	1.5%
Sep 6, 00:20 UTC	1.5%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Federico Valverde officially finishes in the top 3 (positions 1 through 3) of the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or final ranking. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the 2026 Ballon d'Or is canceled or a final ranking has not been published by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Ballon d'Or announcement (https://www.ballondor.com/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.