Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?

Open market

Same event, all outcomes

Lionel MessiUpdated 10 seconds ago67.0% Petar MusaUpdated 10 seconds ago18.8% Sam SurridgeUpdated 10 seconds ago2.5% Brian WhiteUpdated 10 seconds ago1.9% Kévin DenkeyUpdated 10 seconds ago0.9% Denis BouangaUpdated 10 seconds ago0.8% Tai BariboUpdated 10 seconds ago0.8% Prince-Osei OwusuUpdated 10 seconds ago0.2% Dejan JoveljićUpdated 10 seconds ago0.2% Eric Maxim Choupo-MotingUpdated 10 seconds ago0.2% EvanderUpdated 10 seconds ago0.2% Germán BerterameUpdated 10 seconds ago0.2% Louis MunteanuUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Marco PašalićUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Idan ToklomatiUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Albert RusnákUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Cheikh SabalyUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Milan IloskiUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Djordje MihailovicUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Philip ZinckernagelUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Martín OjedaUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Diego RossiUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Danny MusovskiUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Hany MukhtarUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Hugo CuypersUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Alonso MartínezUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Tadeo AllendeUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1% Anders DreyerUpdated 10 seconds ago0.1%

Price history

Recorded probability

Up to 400 most recent snapshots in this period. Lines connect recorded points; prices between them may have moved.

View recorded values 112 snapshots

Recorded at	Probability
Sep 21, 19:16 UTC	67.0%
Sep 21, 18:16 UTC	65.8%
Sep 21, 17:15 UTC	65.8%
Sep 21, 16:01 UTC	60.8%
Sep 21, 15:01 UTC	59.6%
Sep 21, 14:00 UTC	59.6%
Sep 21, 13:00 UTC	59.6%
Sep 21, 11:46 UTC	59.6%
Sep 21, 10:46 UTC	59.6%
Sep 21, 09:45 UTC	60.0%
Sep 21, 08:45 UTC	60.1%
Sep 21, 07:31 UTC	60.5%
Sep 21, 06:30 UTC	65.6%
Sep 21, 05:30 UTC	65.6%
Sep 21, 04:30 UTC	65.6%
Sep 21, 03:30 UTC	65.6%
Sep 21, 02:16 UTC	63.6%
Sep 21, 01:16 UTC	63.6%
Sep 21, 00:15 UTC	59.6%
Sep 20, 23:01 UTC	59.5%
Sep 20, 22:01 UTC	59.6%
Sep 20, 21:00 UTC	59.5%
Sep 20, 07:30 UTC	58.3%
Sep 20, 06:30 UTC	58.2%
Sep 20, 03:46 UTC	54.7%
Sep 19, 03:31 UTC	56.3%
Sep 18, 03:16 UTC	57.4%
Sep 17, 03:01 UTC	57.4%
Sep 16, 07:15 UTC	57.2%
Sep 16, 06:01 UTC	57.2%
Sep 16, 05:01 UTC	57.2%
Sep 16, 04:00 UTC	57.2%
Sep 16, 02:46 UTC	57.2%
Sep 16, 01:46 UTC	57.2%
Sep 16, 00:45 UTC	57.2%
Sep 15, 23:31 UTC	57.2%
Sep 15, 22:31 UTC	57.2%
Sep 15, 21:31 UTC	57.2%
Sep 15, 20:31 UTC	56.8%
Sep 15, 19:30 UTC	56.8%
Sep 15, 18:30 UTC	56.8%
Sep 15, 17:30 UTC	56.8%
Sep 15, 16:16 UTC	56.8%
Sep 15, 15:16 UTC	56.8%
Sep 15, 14:16 UTC	56.7%
Sep 15, 13:15 UTC	55.2%
Sep 15, 12:15 UTC	53.0%
Sep 15, 11:01 UTC	53.0%
Sep 15, 10:01 UTC	53.0%
Sep 15, 09:00 UTC	53.5%
Sep 15, 08:00 UTC	57.2%
Sep 15, 02:31 UTC	59.4%
Sep 14, 07:31 UTC	59.3%
Sep 14, 06:31 UTC	59.3%
Sep 14, 05:31 UTC	59.3%
Sep 14, 04:31 UTC	59.3%
Sep 14, 03:31 UTC	59.2%
Sep 14, 02:30 UTC	59.3%
Sep 14, 01:16 UTC	59.2%
Sep 14, 00:16 UTC	59.2%
Sep 13, 23:16 UTC	59.2%
Sep 13, 22:16 UTC	59.2%
Sep 13, 21:15 UTC	59.3%
Sep 13, 09:16 UTC	60.0%
Sep 13, 08:15 UTC	60.0%
Sep 13, 07:15 UTC	59.6%
Sep 13, 02:01 UTC	52.2%
Sep 12, 01:46 UTC	52.2%
Sep 11, 01:31 UTC	52.2%
Sep 10, 23:16 UTC	52.2%
Sep 10, 22:16 UTC	52.2%
Sep 10, 21:16 UTC	52.9%
Sep 10, 20:15 UTC	52.2%
Sep 10, 19:01 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 18:00 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 17:00 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 15:46 UTC	52.2%
Sep 10, 14:45 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 13:31 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 12:31 UTC	52.2%
Sep 10, 11:30 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 10:16 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 09:16 UTC	52.2%
Sep 10, 08:16 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 07:15 UTC	52.2%
Sep 10, 06:01 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 05:01 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 04:01 UTC	52.1%
Sep 10, 03:00 UTC	52.2%
Sep 10, 02:00 UTC	52.2%
Sep 10, 01:00 UTC	52.2%
Sep 9, 01:01 UTC	52.0%
Sep 8, 00:46 UTC	51.9%
Sep 7, 08:16 UTC	52.2%
Sep 7, 07:16 UTC	52.3%
Sep 7, 06:16 UTC	52.3%
Sep 7, 05:15 UTC	52.3%
Sep 7, 04:01 UTC	51.9%
Sep 7, 03:01 UTC	51.9%
Sep 7, 02:00 UTC	51.9%
Sep 7, 00:46 UTC	51.8%
Sep 6, 23:46 UTC	51.7%
Sep 6, 22:45 UTC	51.7%
Sep 6, 21:45 UTC	51.7%
Sep 6, 20:31 UTC	51.7%
Sep 6, 19:30 UTC	51.7%
Sep 6, 18:30 UTC	51.9%
Sep 6, 09:45 UTC	51.6%
Sep 6, 08:45 UTC	51.6%
Sep 6, 07:45 UTC	52.1%
Sep 6, 06:45 UTC	58.4%
Sep 6, 00:21 UTC	60.5%

What settles this market?

Resolution rules supplied by Polymarket. A price near 100% is not confirmation that an outcome has been settled.

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 MLS Golden Boot. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLS rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLS season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Soccer; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.