Strong Pacific Storm Brings Flash Flooding, Severe Hail and Mountain Snow to California, Arizona and New Mexico Before Soaking Texas and Oklahoma
ALBUQUERQUE, NM — A strong Pacific storm is set to bring an active stretch of weather across the Southwest and parts of the Southern Plains over the next seven days. Rain, thunderstorms, cooler temperatures, and mountain snow will spread across California and the Four Corners region this week, before rain chances increase across Texas and Oklahoma heading into the weekend and early next week. Flash flooding and severe storms will be the primary concerns as tropical moisture feeds into the system.
Wednesday and Thursday Bring the Most Active Weather
Wednesday and Thursday are shaping up as the most active days across Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico, and the Four Corners. Tropical moisture flowing into the approaching low pressure system will support locally heavy downpours, raising concerns for flash flooding in normally dry washes, burn scars, slot canyons, and low-lying roadways.
Some storms on Wednesday could turn severe, producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado across parts of Arizona, far southern Utah, and western New Mexico. Residents in these areas should stay alert to warnings throughout the day.
Projected Rainfall Totals Across the Southwest
The rainfall forecast through early next week shows notable totals across the region. Cortez, Colorado, stands out at around 2.20 inches, while Flagstaff is projected near 1.82 inches and Silver City, New Mexico, near 1.70 inches. Ogden sits near 1.65 inches, Moab around 1.45 inches, and Salt Lake City near 1.15 inches.
In California, San Luis Obispo and Ventura are projected at about 1.05 inches, with Riverside near 0.73 inches and San Diego around 0.51 inches. Las Vegas could see about 0.86 inches, Albuquerque near 1.01 inches, and Tucson around 0.60 inches.
Mountain Snow in the Higher Terrain
Cooler air arriving with the storm will support accumulating mountain snow across the higher elevations. The southern Sierra Nevada is among the areas that could see snowfall, along with high terrain in Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. Travelers crossing mountain passes should prepare for winter driving conditions and possible delays.
Heavy Rain Corridor Targets West Texas
As the storm moves inland late this week, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase across the Southern High Plains. A heavier rainfall corridor is possible from eastern New Mexico into West Texas, including the Texas Panhandle, South Plains, and Permian Basin. Some locations could receive around 1 to 2 inches or locally more through early next week.
Projected totals include Lubbock near 2.45 inches, Carlsbad around 1.78 inches, Amarillo near 1.45 inches, Midland around 1.44 inches, and Roswell near 1.36 inches. The exact placement of this corridor may shift as the system evolves.
Lighter Rain Expected Farther East
Farther east across Oklahoma and North Texas, rainfall appears lighter and less widespread late in the weekend into early next week. Dallas and Fort Worth show totals near 0.13 inches, while Tulsa sits around 0.18 inches and Lawton near 0.26 inches. Confidence in coverage and amounts remains lower in these areas.
Drier Break Before Another Possible Storm
Southern California should see a drier and warmer break by Friday and the weekend. Another Pacific trough may approach the West Coast late in the weekend or early next week, though its timing remains uncertain.
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