As the FIFA World Cup 2026 group stage edges toward its climax, attention is already turning to the knockout rounds and the potential routes to the final at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. With only the final round of group fixtures remaining, a clearer picture is emerging of who could face who in the last 32, and which teams might have a more favorable draw. Here, we break down the possible paths for two home nations—England and Scotland—based on the current standings, according to Sky Sports.
England’s Route: A Test of Champions
Thomas Tuchel’s side opened their campaign with a hard-fought victory over Croatia, putting them on course to top Group D. However, the reward for winning the group may be one of the most daunting paths to the final. If the group stage were to end today, England would face a last-32 clash against Portugal, who currently sit second in Group H after a surprise draw with DR Congo. That would mean a showdown with the legendary Cristiano Ronaldo and his talented supporting cast.
Should the Three Lions advance, a last-16 tie against co-hosts Mexico in the hostile atmosphere of Mexico City awaits. The quarter-finals would then likely pit them against either France or Brazil—two of the tournament favorites. A semi-final appointment with holders Argentina and their talisman Lionel Messi could follow, before a potential final confrontation with Spain. It is a run that would truly test the mettle of any champion, and one that underlines the old adage: to be the best, you have to beat the best.
Scotland’s Qualification Drama and Dream Path
For Scotland, the immediate focus is simply on reaching the last 32. Steve Clarke’s men suffered a setback with defeat to Morocco, leaving them on three points in Group C. They now face a must-win encounter against five-time champions Brazil at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. A victory would guarantee their passage, but a draw or loss could still see them sneak through as one of the best third-placed teams—though the Opta Supercomputer gives them just a 70% chance of progressing in that scenario.
If Scotland do survive, a fascinating route opens up. In the last 32, they would likely meet Germany, a perennial powerhouse. A win there would set up a last-16 tie against either Norway or Sweden, followed by a quarter-final clash with Netherlands. The semi-finals could see them up against Spain, and, in a script straight out of a Hollywood movie, the final might pit them against arch-rivals England. While the odds are long, the Tartan Army will be dreaming of a historic run deep into the tournament.
Key Takeaways
- England face a potential gauntlet of Portugal, Mexico, France/Brazil, Argentina, and Spain if they are to lift the trophy.
- Scotland must beat Brazil to guarantee a last-32 spot, but even a draw could see them qualify as one of the best third-placed teams.
- The knockout bracket remains fluid, with the final group games likely to shuffle the deck significantly.
- A potential all-British final between England and Scotland is a tantalizing—if unlikely—prospect.
Quick Facts
England’s current group position: Top of Group D
England’s possible last-32 opponent: Portugal
Scotland’s current points: 3 (Group C)
Scotland’s must-win match: vs Brazil
Scotland’s qualification chances (per Opta): 70%
Potential final venue: MetLife Stadium, New Jersey
