The Knockout Bracket Beckons
With the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup drawing to a close, attention is turning to the last 32 and the possible paths to the final on July 19. The draw is already throwing up some tantalizing possibilities, including a blockbuster clash between England and Portugal, and a potential Battle of Britain if Scotland can navigate their do-or-die group finale.
How the Last 32 is Taking Shape
As of June 22, the identities of 16 group winners and 16 best third-placed teams are still being determined, but some sides are already safely through. Co-hosts Mexico and the USA, along with Germany, have all guaranteed their spots. Meanwhile, Haiti, Turkey, and Tunisia have been eliminated. The full last-32 lineup remains fluid, but the bracket is already hinting at a tournament of high drama.
England's Rocky Road to Glory
Thomas Tuchel's side took a strong first step with a win over Croatia, putting them on course to top their group. However, the projected path is anything but straightforward. As things stand, England are set to face a Cristiano Ronaldo-led Portugal in the last 32 — a seismic encounter between two European heavyweights. Victory there would likely mean a last-16 trip to Mexico City to face the co-hosts, followed by a quarter-final against either France or Brazil.
The semi-finals could pit England against holders Argentina and Lionel Messi, with Spain potentially waiting in the final. It is a daunting gauntlet that would require England to defeat a succession of world champions to lift their first trophy since 1966.
Scotland's Precarious Path
Scotland's hopes hang in the balance after a defeat to Morocco, leaving Steve Clarke's men needing a win against five-time champions Brazil at Miami's Hard Rock Stadium to guarantee progression. The Opta supercomputer gives them just over a 70% chance of squeezing through as one of the best third-placed teams, but nothing is certain.
Should they survive, a mouth-watering last-32 showdown with Germany awaits. If they can pull off that upset, Norway or Sweden could be next, with the Netherlands looming in the quarter-finals. A semi-final against Spain and a potential all-British final with England remain distant but tantalizing possibilities. For Scotland to even dream of such heights, they must first conquer Brazil.
Key Takeaways
- England's projected knockout path includes Portugal, Mexico, France/Brazil, Argentina, and Spain — a brutally tough route.
- Scotland must beat Brazil to guarantee a place in the last 32; a third-place qualification is possible but not assured.
- A potential England vs Portugal last-32 clash would be one of the biggest early knockout matches in World Cup history.
- If Scotland qualify, a Germany showdown and a possible Battle of Britain final with England are on the cards.
- The bracket remains fluid, with the final group games set to reshape the entire knockout landscape.
Quick Facts
Teams already qualified: Mexico, USA, Germany
Teams eliminated: Haiti, Turkey, Tunisia
Scotland's chance of progressing (Opta): Over 70%
England's possible last-32 opponent: Portugal (as it stands)
World Cup final date: July 19, 2026
Analysis based on the latest bracket projections from Sky Sports.