Chris Sutton's last-16 predictions: Brazil stunned by Norway?
BBC Sport football expert Chris Sutton has delivered his verdict on the 2026 World Cup round of 16, backing Norway to produce a seismic shock by eliminating Brazil in a penalty shootout. With the tournament heading into the knockout phase, Sutton also tips France to demolish Paraguay 5-0 and Morocco to continue their impressive run against Canada.
Sutton correctly predicted 13 of the 16 group-stage results, but like most fans, he was caught out by Paraguay's stunning win over Germany. Now he expects the upsets to keep coming, none bigger than in New York on Sunday.
Brazil vs Norway: Haaland to end Brazilian hopes?
The standout tie of the round pits five-time champions Brazil against an emerging Norway side led by Erling Haaland. Sutton notes the intriguing subplot of Arsenal's Gabriel facing his Premier League rival, but feels the Manchester City striker will prove too much to handle.
"I think everyone is looking forward to seeing Brazil's Arsenal centre-half Gabriel renew his rivalry with Norway's Manchester City striker Erling Haaland on an international stage, and I don't see him keeping Haaland quiet."
Brazil have never beaten Norway in four attempts since 1998, and Sutton believes that historical hoodoo will continue. He predicts a 2-2 draw after extra time before goalkeeper Orjan Nyland becomes the hero in the shootout.
"I just have a feeling that Norway goalkeeper Orjan Nyland will be their hero in the shootout to settle it."
Should the prediction come true, it would extend Brazil's miserable record of being eliminated by the first European opponent they face in the knockout rounds at every World Cup since 2002.
Morocco to march on, France to run riot
Sutton envisions a comfortable path for two of the tournament's most impressive sides. Morocco, who stunned the Netherlands in the group stage, are tipped to beat Canada 2-0 in Houston. The BBC pundit even suggested the Atlas Lions could go all the way.
"I actually think Morocco can win this World Cup but, first things first, they will definitely win this game."
Meanwhile, France are expected to unleash their full attacking firepower against Paraguay. Sutton foresees a 5-0 demolition job, with Kylian Mbappe poised to "fill his boots" if Les Bleus score early.
AI and fans agree: favourites will prevail
BBC Sport also compared Sutton's picks with those generated by Microsoft Copilot and thousands of user predictions. The AI predicted a 2-1 win for Morocco and a 3-1 victory for France, while fans largely backed the favourites. So far, the users lead the prediction contest with a 70% accuracy rate across 88 completed matches, outperforming both Sutton (61%) and the AI (63%).
Key Takeaways
- Chris Sutton predicts a huge upset: Norway to beat Brazil on penalties after a 2-2 draw, citing their historical edge and Haaland's threat.
- France and Morocco are tipped to dominate their ties, with Morocco even backed as potential champions.
- Fans have so far outperformed the experts and AI in predicting World Cup results.
- Brazil's vulnerability against European teams in World Cup knockouts continues to be a key narrative.
Quick Facts
Competition: 2026 FIFA World Cup – Round of 16
Key Fixtures: Canada vs Morocco (Saturday), Paraguay vs France (Saturday), Brazil vs Norway (Sunday)
Sutton's Predictions: Morocco 2-0, France 5-0, Norway on penalties (2-2 AET)
Brazil vs Norway Head-to-Head: Brazil have never won (D2 L2) in four meetings
Prediction Accuracy: Fans 70%, AI 63%, Sutton 61% after 88 matches