As the World Cup 2026 final approaches, the stage is set for a classic confrontation between holders Argentina and European champions Spain. But beyond the narratives, the statistics paint a fascinating picture of two teams with contrasting strengths. BBC Sport statistician Chris Collinson has crunched the numbers ahead of Sunday's showpiece.
Attacking Threat: Argentina's Ruthless Efficiency
Argentina have been the tournament's most prolific side, netting 19 goals – the outright highest tally. Their clinical finishing is underlined by a remarkable run of scoring at least two goals in each of their last 13 World Cup matches, a streak dating back to their opening defeat by Saudi Arabia in 2022. Lionel Messi, in his third final, has been central, but the whole attack has delivered.
Spain, by contrast, have scored 13 goals despite taking more shots. Their finishing has been merely average, matching their expected goals (xG) tally of 13.3. Notably, Argentina have scored five goals from outside the box, while Spain are yet to find the net from distance.
Defensive Solidity: Spain's Record-Breaking Resistance
If Argentina boast the best attack, Spain lay claim to the best defence. Lamine Yamal and co. have conceded just one goal in the entire tournament – in a 2-1 quarter-final win over Belgium. Their defensive xG of 2.1 is the lowest of any team, despite playing more matches than 44 other sides. Only Uruguay (2.4), eliminated in the group stage, come close.
Argentina have conceded seven times, but their underlying numbers suggest bad luck – only Spain have a lower xG against per 90 minutes. Still, Spain's defensive unit, marshalled by coach Luis de la Fuente, has been near-impenetrable, limiting opponents to the lowest-quality chances.
Work Rate and Style: The Running Game
Spain's success is built on relentless pressing. While Argentina have covered more total distance due to two extra-time games, Spain run and sprint more per 90 minutes. Only Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay (7.7) have won possession in the final third more often than Spain (7.2 per 90).
Argentina have been outrun in every match at this World Cup – by a cumulative 17km – yet have always found a way to win. Their less intense approach should not leave them fatigued, however, as they rotated heavily in their final group game against Jordan.
Crossing and Aerial Prowess
Spain have delivered crosses far more frequently, but Argentina have adapted as the tournament progressed. After attempting just 13 open-play crosses in their first four games, they launched 51 in the next three, including the winner from Lautaro Martinez against England.
Spain, meanwhile, boast the best aerial duel success rate at the World Cup, a potential weapon from set-pieces. Mikel Merino, the Arsenal midfielder, epitomises their blend of technical quality and physical commitment.
The data suggests a final of fine margins: Argentina's firepower against Spain's immovable defence. As Merino himself said, the focus is on "being a good human first, then a good footballer" – a philosophy that has carried Spain to the brink of glory.